Did someone say stagflation? Ooh yeah, it was MRP. Recently, we wrote that the US was entering a period of stagflation. Perhaps not as bad as that '70s Show, but stagflation nonetheless.
So, today's employment report was noteworthy. Job growth was below expectations, although there were upward revisions to the month before. The unemployment rate was down from September but remained stuck in the 4.7-5.0% range it has been in all year.
But also in this morning's report we saw that average hourly wages rose to a 2.8% change over last year -- the highest since the so-called Great Recession. It's just one more data point supporting the inflation part... joining a jump over the past year for the CPI from 0.0% to 1.5%.
Perhaps today's report shows early signs of stagflation arriving on the scene. By the way, back in the day, an economist named Arthur Okun identified a measure he named the "Misery Index." It was the sum of the unemployment rate plus the y/y change in the consumer price index (CPI). Clearly, things are nowhere near the state of affairs four decades ago. But the misery index as shown in the chart is on the rise.