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Oil refiners are in a tough spot. Gasoline and jet fuel prices have been falling faster than crude oil, pushing some crack spreads firmly into negative territory. Now there’s talk that the Saudis and Russians plan to end their oil price war. Should that happen, oil prices will certainly rise, which will cause refinery margins to deteriorate further. Taking into account the increased probability of the US and EU economies slipping into recession, you’ve got a recipe for refinery underperformance even in a broad stock market rebound.

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