Headline inflation has shifted into a downtrend over the past few months, largely due to a sharp decline in energy prices toward the end of 2018. The core CPI, however, shows that, aside from food and energy, inflation remains above 2%. While the Fed is going to need more than that to shift them out of their “patient” position on interest rates, MRP believes that a rebound in the price of crude oil and other commodities, as well as consumer staples and other finished goods will continue to push inflation higher throughout 2019.
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